War-torn Sudan heading for disaster

Featured image: map of Sudan; source: Le Monde Diplomatique

We have previously reported on the war in Sudan portraying an initial analysis of the circumstances of the outbreak of the war.

Nearly one year afterwards the situation is sharpening. It is reported, that the war-actions dramatically increased, due to massive arming of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) by the United Arab Emirates on the one hand and the “government’s” Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by Egypt. It is said, that around eight million people are displaced inside the country as well as being forced to fled into neighboring countries additional to around 3 million refugees resulting from previous conflicts. Half the territory is controlled by either the RSF or the SAF. The government fled the capital Khartoum to Port Sudan.

Negotiation attempts failed or resulted in non-lasting cease-fires. Since these failures international organization focus on the supply with humanitarian aid.

Now the battle is for centered around El Fasher, the capital of the region North Darfur, after the RSF was able to conquer Nyala, al-Dshunaina and Zalingei three of five regional capitals in Darfur region. In El Fasher around 1.5 million people live, one third being internal refugees. The outcomes of the battle on El Fasher seems to become a turning point in the ongoing war.

While the burden lies on the masses of the peoples in Sudan, foreigners are profiting. In this aspects one can consider Egypt as the Yankees handyman, while the UAE seems to be a Russian proxy in Sudan, as most analysts do.

In this sense the development of “DP World” is noteworthy. It was founded 25 years ago by the UAE state monopoly “Dubai World” as a maritime transport company. DP World started in 2016 to construct and run ports in Eastern Africa. First in Somaliland and Puntland, then in Senegal, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In October 2023 DP World took over the port of Daressalam in Tanzania for 250 million US-Dollar.

The UAE via its DP World was heading for the same port as the Russians – Port Sudan. So the UAE and the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group made up a joint-venture. Wagner transported arms paid for by the UAE with its troops in the Central African Republic to the RSF in Sudan. Since the Prigozhin incident and the restructuring of Wagner – we reported – things became even more complicated. According to Le Mode Diplomatique today two different Russian groups are involved in arming the RSF. But the Kremlin is striving to overcome these issues by its new Africa Corps.

Due to the difficult situation with Wagner the UAE brought Libyan Chalifa Haftar in to play. Haftar organized air cargo from Bengasi to North-Western-Darfur. Additionally air-drops of weapons with parachutes were delivered.

Russian President Vladimir Putin lately said relations with the UAE were at an all-time high during his first visit to the Middle East since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Putin praised cooperation between the two countries as he met President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi in early December 2023, describing the UAE as “Russia’s main trading partner in the Arab world.” For the UAE, the strong ties with Russia is a “calculated risk” it is willing to take, a top UAE official told CNN in mid 2023. Representatives from the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union failed in September 2023 to convince the Gulf nation for the implementation of sanctions against Russia.

On the other side the SAF are supplied via the sea to their residence in Port Sudan by Egypt. Egypt also directly intervened in the conflict, bombarding a Nile-River-Bridge in Khartoum in August 2023. Hundreds of Egyptian soldiers have been captured by the RSF and bombings of RSF positions by Egyptian fighter jets are reported, according to the Atlantic Council.

In this situation the scenario tends towards a complete collapse of central government, what will boost the current explosive situation at the Horn of Africa even more. On the 8th of March, the UN Security Council, aware of this situation, adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the month of Ramadan, a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue, compliance with international humanitarian law and unhindered humanitarian access.

The UN Secretary-General, the UN Security Council, the African Union, and the League of Arab States joined forces to call for this Ramadan truce but Ramadan has started with further fierce fighting. Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted.

On top of the death and misery the war itself causes Sudan is on track to becoming the world’s largest hunger crisis, with around 18 million people already facing acute food insecurity, according to a report by the United Nations. 220,000 severely malnourished children could reportedly die in the upcoming months if they do not receive urgent assistance. A total of some 3.7 million children suffer from malnutrition in Sudan.

The perspective is quite horrible. The UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan for Sudan is only 4 per cent funded. Both RSF and SAF used hunger as a weapon of war. The RSF has looted humanitarian warehouses and besieged cities. The SAF-controlled Humanitarian Aid Commission has systematically banned movement of lifesaving aid to RSF-controlled areas.

The recent fighting is very likely to damage the spring harvest, which will increase the hunger even more. Also adequate medical treatment is seldom since prices of medics sky-rocketed by 600 per cent.

The armed conflict in Sudan, driven forward by the Imperialist puppeteers, will continue to great even more disorder in a region tarnished by war.

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