
On the increasing tension at the Horn of Africa
Featured image: political map of the region.
During the last September, further warmongering and tension between the Ethiopian and Somali States have been developed. These tensions have their roots in the signature on January 1 of the so-called Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland1, which gave access to the first leased-port that would grant access to the Gulf of Aden and therefore, access to the sea, a possibility that the Ethiopian state lost by the independence of Eritrea decades ago. Thus, Somaliland leased 20 kilometers to the Ethiopian state. Although the clauses of the agreement remain secret, it is pointed out that it would be a not only commercial agreement but also could imply military presence. In return, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, promised that he would eventually recognize the sovereignty of Somaliland. Somalia protested and saw an aggression to its sovereignty. In mid-September Diplomats of Somaliland affirmed that the MoU was completed and that “a formal legal agreement was imminent.” This pointed to a possible recognition by Ethiopia of Somaliland, something that the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, already pointed out as a possibility in January.
In an interview with the president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, on September 30, he showed a series of photographs and said that Ethiopia was deliberately releasing water to cause floods in Somalia, as part of his country’s destabilization exercise. In turn, in an escalation of tensions, at the beginning of September Ethiopian troops approached the border with Somalia. A factor that adds tension and complexity is the presence of Ethiopian troops as part of the Occupation Troops in Somali territory, the African Union Transition Mission In Somalia (ATMIS), managed by the African Union. Ethiopia is the main contributor of troops with around 4,000 soldiers deployed. In another movement that increased tensions, at the beginning of September, the Ethiopian troops present in the Gedo region in Somalia, took control of Luuq, Doolow, Bardere and Garbaharey airports, important for the arrival of diplomatic bodies, humanitarian equipment and passengers common.
Somalia is a semi-colonial and semi-feudal State mainly subjected by Yankee imperialism and thus, for decades the Yankee military presence has increased. Earlier this year we already reported how the Pentagon plans to build numerous military bases had been revealed and thus continue training the troops of its lackey State and continue carrying out operations against resistance and the peoples of the area. And in all this conflict the position of Yankee imperialism has been to defend, according to them, “the territorial sovereignty of Somalia, its integrity and unity.” In turn, in subsequent statements they have explicitly affirmed that they do not recognize the MoU and that the US, is the main “donor and security partner” of Somalia. The European Union quickly made a statement on the MoU (on January 2) insisting that the sovereignty of Somalia should be respected, stating that “this is key to the peace and stability of the entire region of the Horn of Africa.” Although in all this issue imperialist powers such as the United Kingdom, as well as and especially Yankee imperialism, have shown their hypocrisy and cynicism once again, since while the garments are torn and “defend” the sovereignty of Somalia, they themselves have agreements with Somaliland.
On the part of Chinese social-imperialism, they have expressed themselves in similar terms on numerous occasions with respect to Somalia: when the MoU was signed in January, the Chinese embassy in Somalia stated that Somaliland is part of Somalia, which China supports the federal government of Somalia to “safeguard national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity.” In September at a bilateral meeting with the Somali government, they said that the collaboration between the two countries was close and that they maintained a “firm support for the current state construction process”. More recently they have made their typical statement of the face to the gallery, stating that they support the “efforts of the Somali government to safeguard the national unity and territorial integrity.” However, Chinese social-imperialism has displayed a level of cynicism at the height of Yankee imperialism, since while on the one hand it defends Somali sovereignty, on the other hand it not only exports huge amounts of financial capital and supports Ethiopian mega-projects, but also it reinforces military cooperation with this country. With the growing military presence of lackeys of Yankee imperialism and the development of Somali military capacities to deter Ethiopia, in mid-September China and Ethiopia went one step further in military cooperation and claimed that it sought to improve Ethiopian military capabilities.
At the same time there is a growing military deployment of several lackeys of Yankee imperialism: Egypt and Turkey. And also Somalia and Ethiopia cross threats and accusations. Somalia, for example, has affirmed that Ethiopia has sent cargoes of weapons and ammunition to Puntland, another region with a special status in Somalia, which would be seen as an exercise of destabilization and “violation of sovereignty.” In turn, Somalia openly threatened to “have contacts with armed rebels in Ethiopia or rebels who are fighting the Ethiopian regime.” The Egyptian case is the most prominent since in August of this year Egypt and Somalia signed a bilateral defense pact. Shortly after, a large armament cargo was reported, among it heavy armament and anti-tank weapons, which would be the greatest shipment of this type of material since the embargo on weapons by the UN was lifted up in December 2023. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Somalia, Ali Omar, said that the government “seeks to receive more military supplies” and that they expect “in a short time that there are forces to help us train our troops and rebuild our army, and this is what we have asked Egypt.” These words showed perhaps the most important issue of the bilateral defense agreement: the deployment of a large contingent of Egyptian troops in Somalia. Thus, both lackeys of Yankee imperialism had “agreed” the deployment of up to 10,000 Egyptian soldiers in Somalia, deployment that already started in August with the arrival of the first troops in two C-130 transport planes. Local media themselves pointed out that this was aimed at forming the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUNSOM) by 2025, which would replace the ATMIS we have mentioned above. Thus, the plan is to replace 4,000 Ethiopian soldiers by 10,000 Egyptian soldiers.
The implication of the Egyptian ruling classes in this conflict must be analyzed from several perspectives: the Egyptian State and the Ethiopian State have a long history of tensions due to the use and access of the Nile River, which crosses both countries, due to the mega-project of the Great Dam of the Renaissance Ethiopian (known as GERD). This dam will significantly limit the flow of water that will arrive in Egypt and therefore could mean enormous damage for its economy, especially for the agricultural sector, which on the other hand, in perspective could generate a great uproar among the peasantry as the agrarian land and its productivity in Egypt would greatly diminish. According to the United Nations (UN) Egypt could begin to suffer water shortage by 2025. In addition, the Egyptian authorities claimed that a 2% cut of the water that came to them would mean the loss of almost 81,000 hectares of arable land. But it also affects the filling of water from Lake Nasser, the main Egyptian reserve for hydroelectric energy generation. The electricity generation of the GERD began in the year 2022. The fourth and last filling of water from the dam has recently completed, finalizing the process in a few years despite the fact that Egypt demanded that it be carried out in 15 to 20 years so to not affect the irrigation of their lands so drastically. Additionally this leads the Egyptian ruling classes, in addition to serving the purposes of his master the Yankee imperialism, encouraged in the conflict with the Ethiopian State, while benefiting them by double shaking the loop. On the one hand they comply with the US designs, defending their interests in the area by supporting Somalia. On the other hand, defending their specific interests in this conflict, which are in antagonistic contradiction with those of the Ethiopian ruling classes.

Regarding the imperialist powers involved, Yankee imperialism opposed the construction of this dam without having an agreement, that is, without its approval and without stabilizing the situation for its Egyptian lackeys. On the other hand, trying to block the project could affect the interests of Chinese social-imperialism and Ethiopian approach towards the latter. This prey initially had important investments of Italian imperialism since mainly the project was built by the Webuild group, previously Salini Impregilo, the biggest Italian construction company and one of the largest in the world. But in recent years and more outstandingly, it has had great investments by Chinese social-imperialism, a relationship that has been strengthened progressively in recent years. In 2011 China promised serious investments, just when the GERD was being relaunched as a project at the same time that the Egyptian lackey government was destabilized in the context of the “Arab springs”, so it was a right time to launch the project knowingly that as the Egyptian ruling classes were in a moment of weakness. In 2013 Chinese social-imperialism granted $1.2 billions on loans and in 2019 another $1.8 billions, with other subsequent minor investments. By 2021, Chinese loans to Ethiopia, reached the figure of $16 billions, according to the US National Economic Research Bureau of the United States. These investments would be part of a growing export of financial capital by Chinese social-imperialism towards Africa in general and in particular in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, which has been increasing its military presence in Djibouti, as well as other large exports South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. This does not mean that the presence of Yankee imperialism in the country has been diluted, proof of this is the recent loan by the International Monetary Fund to Ethiopia of $3.4 billions. There is also a growing competition in the hydrocarbons sector, with the Poly-GCL company (whose owner is the Chinese monopoly Sinopec) making searches and finding new sources of hydrocarbons in Ethiopia. But at the same time there are still large exports of financial capital by Yankees monopolies, such as a refinery that would cost $4 billions funded by Fairfax Africa Fund, a American company. In fact, in 2024 Yankee imperialism remained the main capital exporter to Ethiopia, although that was very closely followed by China.
As for the Turkish State, it is another of the most visible actors in everything that has been happening for months that announced the possible shipment of troops to the Horn of Africa2, supporting Somalia from the beginning against the MoU. This last September the president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, asked the Turkish government to act as a mediator in the tensions that occurred in the area. In addition, after months of preparation, the Turkish government sent the ORUC Reis exploration ship to the Somali coast to collaborate in the looting of the country’s resources, since it was looking for gas and oil deposits. Somalia granted a license to Turkish Petroleum so that the company operates in an area of 15,000 square kilometers in search of energy resources. This was part of a series of agreements between the Turkish and Somalia States that gave exclusivity to the first in exchange for the development of military capacities and defense of Somalia. Shortly after it was reported that the Turkish State had sent two war ships to the Somali coast to protect the search for gas and oil by a ship sent with that mission. All this has caused a lot of bourgeois media and analysts to talk about “Turkish expansionism”, of its development, Erdogan’s ambitions, etc. But the reality is that Turkish Petroleum is owned by a Dutch monopoly, Zeren Group, which would have previously bought Alpet, another relevant company in the Turkish oil and gas sector. In sum, what the Turkish State does is make its troops available to foreign monopolies and their struggle for a new re-division of the world. As well as it serves the interests of Yankee imperialism in the area, very vigilant of what happens in Somalia.
The use of Yankee imperialism of their lackeys to make the “dirty work” is a constant throughout the world. In this case Haiti constitutes a clear example: the deployments that have been over time have been formed by troops of oppressed countries whose governments and ruling classes are lackeys of Yankee imperialism. For example Brazilian, Nepalese or Bangladeshi contingents. The new contingent that would be to send to Haiti, would be Kenyan. Thus, the US government, avoids sending US troops or police forces, with the problem that can be generated in its image, as well as public opinion in their own country if there are casualties or crimes are discovered. In addition, the sending of troops from oppressed countries makes them see them as “expansionists” hiding the true character of the semi-colonial yoke imposed by Yankee imperialism. On the other hand, Yankee imperialism can maintain its appearance as a defender of “Human Rights and Democracy”, making economic sanctions such as those recently made due to crimes committed by Ethiopia in Tigray. Thus, in this case we see how it uses as supposed mediators to its Turkish lackeys (as well as for military deployment in the area), while using Egypt to maintain a large and loyal occupation force at the Horn of Africa, which replaces the Ethiopian problematic partner. And not only an equivalent substitution, but of much greater power, because they will display more than double troops and many more sophisticated means. The meaning is double: ensure the Horn of Africa in the face of the possible expansion of other imperialist powers; strengthen the occupation in the face of increasing instability in the Middle East, as well as an al-Shabaab that has not been defeated much and that as we have regularly reported, continues to give blows and represent a serious danger to the Somali government.
Although Yankee imperialism has not entered into antagonistic contradiction with Ethiopia, if it has imposed numerous sanctions, expelled from investment programs, etc. This, added to the use of other maneuvers such as “NGO’s” reports linked to Yankee imperialism about the deterioration of so-called human rights in the country, the wide coverage of bourgeois means of the excesses committed by Abiy Ahmed, together with the support shown to Somalia and the strong commitment to militarize the country, show how Yankee imperialism tries to increasingly destabilize the Ethiopian state for not being the faithful lackey they’d like and for having progressively turned towards the arms of Chinese social-imperialism. In turn, the attempt to replace the Ethiopian occupation troops with another contingent, is a clear sample of the attempt to remove international relevance from the Ethiopian state and maintain control of that occupation in Somalia with another more servile lackey. Something similar although on much smaller scale is seen with the European Union and its support for Somalia and constant condemnations of the MoU, no doubt due to the interests of European monopolies in the area, for example, the Zeren group itself, real owner of Turkish Petroleum, as we have said.
In general terms we attend a growing struggle between imperialist powers for the new re-division of the world that has as a battlefield, in this case only tensions, the oppressed Third World countries. Africa is a territory of struggle among imperialists to see who stays with the largest portion of the loot. The Horn of Africa plays a fundamental role within not only for its natural resources or the abundant workforce that can be exploited but also by the strategic position it occupies. In particular, Yankee imperialism maintains special attention for what happens while this strategic position is fundamental for its war against the peoples of the Middle East, as well as to avoid a greater rise of Chinese social-imperialism, which threateningly makes its power and influence grow on the African continent, especially in East Africa. Thus, this inter-imperialist clash produces the destabilization of numerous countries, which are governed by lackey ruling classes that with their own interests and serving those of their imperialist masters, precipitate their peoples to war. Somalia can soon witness a replacement of occupation forces, which before and now, are at the service of Yankee imperialism, as well as see how their lackeys are directed to war by design of their imperialist masters.
But what becomes also clearer and clearer is that all this performance of the imperialists also involves negative consequences for them: the peoples of the region are increasingly in war against imperialist interests. The resistance against Yankee imperialism and its lackey government in Somalia could not be placated. Internal Ethiopian instability has not been stopped, neither in Tigray, neither in Amhara nor in Oromia. The rebellions of the Kenyan masses have made many imperialists tremble. For all these reasons, as in many other parts of the world, the imperialists want to create instability to hit each other, but by doing so, in perspective they are digging their own grave.
1Somaliland is a small State not recognized which declared its independence from Somalia 30 years ago.
2 We already reported this summer on this agreement between the old Turkish State and the deployment of troops, as well as on the agreements with Egypt: https://redherald.org/2024/07/26/update-on-the-somalia-instability/