Rote Fahne Austra – War in Ukraine: Will there be a “deal” between the US and Russia?
We share the article found in Rote Fahne Austria.
After the first meeting between the US and Russian presidents in more than three years, no concrete results were announced regarding the further course of the war in Ukraine, but certain steps were taken. The EU and the UK were not involved in these negotiations at all, which shows their current weakness in the international struggle for hegemony and redistribution among the imperialists. While Trump likes to portray himself as an “apostle of peace” on the issue of the war in Ukraine, the US is trying to push ahead with massive rearmament and militarization through NATO, is driving forward the genocide in Palestine, and is preparing for new wars. In doing so, one thing in particular is proving fatal for them: the opposition of the peoples to imperialist war.
Trump-Putin meeting reveals contradictions between the US and the EU
The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska also brought to light certain contradictions between the US and the EU (as well as the UK). This is because a so-called “ceasefire,” as demanded by the leading monopoly groups in the EU and the UK in Ukraine, was clearly rejected. A ceasefire would not be a fundamental change in the war currently being waged in Ukraine, but would also allow for a certain reorganization of Ukrainian troops, further military buildup, and the “recovery” of war-weary Ukrainian soldiers. A ceasefire would therefore primarily help the imperialists of the EU, who have a strong interest in continuing the war in Ukraine. It would help them to create greater room for maneuver in a situation where Ukraine is on the defensive and at a disadvantage on the battlefield, while it would be disadvantageous for Russian warfare in a situation where it is on the offensive. By rejecting a ceasefire, the EU and the UK have less room for maneuver and must either defer to the US on the main issues or act without (or even against) the US, which is rather unlikely in the current situation. Although the EU is on a war footing and is attempting to massively rearm, it is far from having a common military strategy or the potential to continue the war in Ukraine “alone.” This was confirmed, among other things, by the follow-up meeting in Washington with representatives of NATO, the EU, and Ukraine, at which Von der Leyen, Rutte, Merz, Starmer, Meloni, Zelensky, etc. presented themselves as docile and submissive.
Discussion about “security guarantees” for Ukraine
The follow-up meeting mentioned above also shows that the US is quite willing to negotiate the “security guarantees” for Ukraine demanded by the EU. The EU (and the UK) would play an important role in this, either in the stationing of troops, the defense of “Western” interests in western Ukraine, or even “border protection” against Russia. This clearly shows that the goal of encircling Russia by the US (in alliance with the EU) has not been completely abandoned, despite the talk of so-called “peace.” The US apparently has little interest in continuing the war in Ukraine in its current form, but it certainly wants its European “partners” to serve as the “first line of defense” against its Russian rival. This is also supported by Trump’s push to increase the military budgets of NATO member states to five percent, as well as the further armament and reinforcement of NATO in Eastern Europe (e.g., currently Moldova). The imperialists’ talk of peace does not mean that their warmongering will subside, or that they will reduce their military build-up, but rather that the peoples, and in this case especially the peoples of Europe, are to be further mobilized for an imperialist war. The US is increasingly trying to focus strategically on its rival China and its influence in Asia, including in military terms. This is also evident, for example, in the armament of the Philippines, which the US is currently promoting primarily against China.
The situation at the front is to the disadvantage of Zelensky’s army
The negotiations between Trump and Putin are starting at a time when the situation at the front is to Russia’s advantage. The last major offensive attempt by the Ukrainian army was about a year ago with the capture of territories in Kursk, which have since been lost again. Even the “Western” imperialist media are currently warning of massive advances by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine and admit that, at least on the battlefield, the Ukrainian army is falling behind. The main reason for this is not that “too few” weapons are being supplied by the West, but that support for this war has fallen dramatically among the Ukrainian population. According to official statistics, the majority of Ukrainians, 77 percent, are now against continuing this war. (1) Even Vitali Klitschko, the fascist mayor of the capital Kiev, who is supported by Germany, recently said, “Everyone is tired of war,” and did not rule out the possibility of ceding territory to Russia. (2) Opposition to the war in Ukraine, which is financed and promoted by the West, is also reflected in the high number of deserters. Although there are hardly any current figures on this, in 2022 there were already 95,000 official proceedings against “deserters.” (3) Ukrainian President Zelensky’s concession that deserters can return to the army with impunity, also shows how dissatisfied the the people are with the Zelensky clique’s conduct of the war. Forced recruitment, desertion, war weariness… these are the main causes of the current course of the war in Ukraine and show that the people of Ukraine are less and less, or no longer at all, willing to unite under the leadership of the Zelensky clique for seemingly national causes, which are then betrayed by the ruling gang anyway. The people are apparently less and less willing to die for the interests of a clique of rulers who want to profit from selling Ukraine piece by piece to the “West” and therefore have neither Ukraine’s independence nor sovereignty as their goal. A large part of the Ukrainian population is very much interested in defending their national interests against Russian imperialism, but not under the leadership of the Zelensky clique and its imperialist backers. They do not want to follow the “path” that the “West” has laid out for them, and this is currently expressed in desertion, flight, and war weariness. The longer the war continues in this form, the more this tendency will increase, which is another factor why the Zelensky clique is increasingly unable to present even small successes in the war.
There will probably be no “quick” outcome to the negotiations
The Russian leadership currently has little interest in a “quick” negotiated solution, because in the current situation, the Russian army can still achieve a number of territorial gains. Currently, the capture of the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk Oblast is a key objective of the Russian army and, due to its military significance for Ukraine, would mark a turning point in the course of the war. At the same time, however, the unstable global situation is also developing in such a way that Russia may have little interest in continuing this war of attrition indefinitely, which makes a certain “deal” with the US likely in the medium term. The meeting between Putin and Trump also supports this view. If a “deal” is reached, then significant parts of the occupied territories will definitely be attributed to Russia. Even in the event of such a “deal,” the armament, militarization, and warmongering will not be “ended,” but will continue to be pursued.
In many actions, sections of the population in Europe have shown that they oppose imperialist war (e.g., blockades of arms deliveries to Ukraine, demonstrations, etc.). It is right and necessary to oppose support for the Zelensky clique, which has no interest whatsoever in defending Ukraine’s independence and self-determination. At the same time, a “deal” between Trump and Putin will not bring peace in the interests of the Ukrainian people, but will instead fragment and divide Ukraine in the imperialists’ struggle for hegemony and redistribution. Achieving independence, self-determination, and sovereignty is in the interests of the oppressed peoples and nations, and they must fight for it against the plans of the imperialists.
(1) orf.at; „Ukrainer fürchten nun zwei Gegner“
(2) deutschlandfunk.de; „Klitschko: ‚Jeder ist kriegsmüde‘“
(3) diepresse.com; „Ukraine ringt mit Truppen-mangel: Deserteure sollen bei Armee-Rückkehr straffrei bleiben“
