Editorial – ‘Moderate’ Bolsonarism comes out ahead

We hereby publish an unofficial translation of the editorial of A Nova Democracia:

The popular movement, to recover, preserve and expand the rights that have been destroyed in the last 10 years, especially in the last five, needs to seriously mobilize the popular masses to uphold their demands.

The recent movements in the investigations against Bolsonaro do not bring, as facts, anything new: that the head of the extreme right has stolen the jewels from the presidential collection and that he has systematically used the spying organs of the old State for his private interests, everyone knows. What the publication of the investigations really reveals is that there is a major agreement, impossible to be reached without the consent of the active generals, to win the captain of the forest from an electoral point of view.

Also, this is better for the establishment: the Generals tend to ensure hegemony in the command of the troops and maneuver them to their line of military intervention step by step through the institutional path; the most powerful groups of finance capital and latifundia will have at their disposal a bolsonarist right, latifundia and linked to the police forces, like Tarcísio, but “moderate” and more controllable than Bolsonaro and his faithful followers. But that, despite the sharp contradiction it provokes with these extremist hosts, this right tends to channel to itself all the rightist anti-government sentiment that previously coalesced in Bolsonaro. Moreover, it must have the support of the clan, which, besieged by the investigations and the judiciary, will be obliged to accept this as the best condition to try to reverse the situation of isolation to which it is coming. The scenario that is being drawn, from the establishment’s point of view, is the best that could be achieved, despite the tensions it creates, because it allows it – in theory – to get rid of the risk of right-wing extremism and, at the same time, to get rid of the alliance with Luiz Inácio and PT, which has only potentiated the political instability that threatens the governability of its system of exploitation.

In this sense, the “powerful” are really ungrateful, as Luiz Inácio himself says, because if there is something they cannot do is accuse the current president of not having served as a good subordinate in their plans, throughout all these years. And right now, the president has not fulfilled any major campaign promises made to the grassroots of the popular movement, such as a land reform, repeal of the new High Schools, reversal of the loss of labor rights, the end of the tax lock, the recovery of Higher Education, nothing! Rather, it is about being obedient to the dictates of the “market”.

This, however, does not mean that bolsonarism is out of the dispute. The ultra-reactionary values that Bolsonaro captained have not disappeared, they have only pulverized, and they tend to regroup again in someone – the more if the current government fails in its mission to regain popularity. The current IPEC survey shows that 51% do not trust Luiz Inácio, maintaining the negative index since December 2023. Since December, the government has not improved its assessment, stagnating at 37% approval, while disapproval grows. These data are the result of the fact that the government promises to the masses, and delivers everything demanded by local and foreign financial capital and the latifundia: after all, among these are those who voted for the PT in 2022. It is the result of class conciliation: it results in frustration, and that feeds the right. In this sense, “moderate” bolsonarism is the biggest beneficiary: it has Bolsonaro ineligible and a government of the false “left” that fails, and when it fails, it makes the best possible propaganda for the return of bolsonarism.

The popular movement, in order to recover, preserve and extend the rights that have been destroyed in the last 10 years, especially in the last five, needs to seriously mobilize the popular masses to uproot their demands. This is not only the best way to win partial victories, but very important: it is the only way to be ready, with the streets taken, to face the return of bolsonarism, now “moderate” and, perhaps, for this very reason, more capable of achieving the objectives of maintaining the system of exploitation, facilitated by the failure of class conciliation. We must abandon illusions and prepare for the fight!